People at or in the vicinity of Dealey Plaza having foreknowledge of a possible shooting incident have realised quickly the meaning of the shots that killed President Kennedy on November 22, 1963. In my previous article [1], I argued that Prayer Man, the unknown man standing in the Depository doorway seconds after the last shot, behaved differently compared to the rest of the people standing either in the Depository doorway or on sidewalks of Dealey Plaza. Prayer Man stood in what appears to be a defensive posture with his arms half-crossed in front of his chest, head slightly tilted toward his right, and his gaze and feet orientated in the general direction of the corner of Elm and Houston Street. Prayer Man, unlike all other people, did not need to observe the pandemonium evolving in Dealey Plaza to understand the meaning of the shots. The reason for Prayer Man’s lack of interest in exploring the scene was that he very likely had foreknowledge, of some kind, of a possible incident involving shooting. What Prayer Man did not predict was that the incident was a full-blown assassination. This article assumes that Lee Harvey Oswald went out to the doorway of the Depository building during the critical moments of assassination to watch the motorcade, and was filmed by Dave Wiegman and James Darnell while standing on the top landing close to the western wall.

Let us examine the behaviour of people who were at Dealey Plaza during the assassination of President Kennedy and knew about a possible incident targeting the President and involving shooting. Did these people realised the meaning of the reports immediately once the shots rang out? Did they leave Dealey Plaza immediately? If having foreknowledge of an incident or shooting helped the bystanders to figure out the meaning of the shots and if people with foreknowledge left the scene immediately rather than staying and exploring Dealey Plaza, we would have another, albeit indirect, support for the thesis that Prayer Man had foreknowledge of an incident pertaining to Presidential motorcade.

Chauncey Holt explained his foreknowledge in the book: “Self-portrait of a Scoundrel” [2] as follows: ” I was told specifically by Phillip Twombly that there was going to be a nonviolent demonstration, an incident that was going to be laid at the door of the pro-Castro Cubans. I just assumed it was going to be serious enough to inject some life into the anti Castro program. That it would be more than a few placards, more than those “We hate Kennedy” placards. I would assume that they were going to take a shot at that motorcade, with no intention of hitting anyone. Maybe that’s why they were going to use that Mannlicher Carcano because they couldn’t possibly hit anyone with that. … You know that there was going to be a swell of public opinion. Hey, it would turn the screws on Castro. They would have been yelling again to invade Cuba and everything else.” Holt described his realisation of the meaning of the shots as follows: “Immediately, I came to the grim realization I, at least, had been duped and I started running for the boxcar, as soon as I heard the first two shots.” [2]

Chauncey Holt stood in the parking lot between the Texas School Book Depository and boxcars during the shooting. Holt gave a detailed description of four shots he heard. He realised that he had been set up immediately as he heard the shots and ran to one of the boxcars where he was joined by two other individuals, Richard Montoya and Charles Harrelson [2-3]. Holt’s role in Dallas was to prepare and hand over faked Secret Service cards. Thus, Holt was aware of a secret plot potentially involving a non-violent shooting, however, he did not know that the real purpose of the plot was to kill President Kennedy. Holt’s foreknowledge of an incident, perhaps in form of a mock shooting, led to an immediate re-evaluation of the situation once he registered the number and directions of the shots; such shots were incompatible with a mock shooting. Further, Holt’s realisation that a true assassination was in place led him to believe that he had been set up and to seek a hideout in a boxcar. Holt’s foreknowledge contrasted with his interpretation of the shots and this had two consequences: first, Holt understood that he might have been set up, and second, Holt sought a hideout.

Tosh Plumlee was a pilot and served on a number of missions sponsored by the CIA [4]. Plumlee was at Dealey Plaza together with another man named Sergio. Plumlee reported that he has been a member of an abort team that was sent by the CIA to scupper an assassination attempt on President Kennedy that the Agency had been informed was planned for the Dallas part of the trip. Plumlee and Sergio were not the only abort team on that fateful afternoon [5-6]. The role of the abort team was to search for suspicious individuals, spotters or shooters, white waiting for the arrival of the motorcade. Plumlee and Sergio occupied a spot at the South Knoll when they saw the motorcade arriving via Houston Street [5-6]. Plumlee and Sergio realised at once that the shots that have rung out were aimed to assassinate President Kennedy. Sergio said, “Oh my Gosh, we have … up, let’s get hell out of here!” [6] and then Plumlee and Sergio left Dealey Plaza after checking the parking lot behind the South Knoll. In comparison to Holt, Plumlee and Sergio could connect the dots faster and easier because his and Sergio’s role was to abort any assassination attempt that they knew could have happened [4-6]. Further, Plumlee saw Kennedy’s head moving violently backward after the last shot [6].

Plumlee was a member of the abort team only because he was asked by Sergio to assist as a spotter; this took Plumlee by surprise because he was expecting to remain on the plane that he piloted to Dallas [5]. The purpose of the abort team was revealed to Plumlee only after the team arrived at Dealey Plaza. The role of the abort team was to interfere with possible shooting in a non-violent way, e.g., by bumping into or standing close to a suspiciously behaving individual [5]. While Plumlee and Sergio were not happy with the overall organisation of protection at Dealey Plaza before the arrival of the motorcade, not spotting anything suspicious, both men returned to South Knoll. After the last shot rang out, the abort team left Dealey Plaza in a hurry realising that the effort of the abort team was futile. They left immediately after briefly checking the area of South Knoll [5]. A hasty departure from Dealey Plaza was related to Plumlee and Sergio being on a secret mission, sanctioned by the CIA; the shooting was not only proof of their failure but also exposed them to the risk of being associated with the assassination.

Lt. J. Goode (“Randy Ely”) was a member of yet another abort team operating at Dealey Plaza. Lt. Goode conferred in his interview with authors Petersen and Zachry [7] that he had been at Dealey Plaza with his boss, U.S. Marshall Robert I. Nash on that fateful Friday, November 22, 1963. Both men were part of one of the abort teams that happened to be located at Dealey Plaza. The Dealey Plaza abort team comprised four men, Goode, Nash, and two other men. Nash stood on the top of Triple Underpass while Lt. Goode was located below the Underpass near the entrance to Stemmons Freeway. Lt. Goode located one of the shots as originating from the southeast side of Dealey Plaza and had noticed two shooters: one was crouched on the roof of the County Records building and the other shooter was aiming his rifle from one of the top windows of the same building. The presence of a puff of smoke signaled shooting from the top of the County Records building. Goode and Nash ran directly to the southeast corner of Dealey Plaza and later to the County Records building and even to the Texas School Book Depository where they helped in search of the building. Marshall Nash participated in at least one interrogation of Lee Harvey Oswald which is evidenced in Captain Fritz’s testimony for the Warren Commission [8]. No written report pertaining to Nash’s and Goode’s presence at Dealey Plaza exists, and their story never made it to any official records or the Warren Report. Nash’s and Goode’s behaviour suggests that they understood the meaning of the shots immediately, however, being on the other side of the plot than Holt, decided to pursue the assassins rather than to flee the scene.

Let us examine the behaviour of people who could not have any foreknowledge of an incident involving a shooting. For the purpose of the present analysis, I have selected four witnesses whose actions and experiences are well documented. Billy Lovelady stood in the Depository doorway during the shooting and therefore, his behaviour can be directly compared with Prayer Man’s/Oswald behaviour. This witness experienced no direct threat from the shots because he was sheltered by the doorway of the Texas School Book Depository. Bill Newman’s and Charles Brehm’s locations were only yards away from President’s limousine when shots rang out and they both felt threatened by the shots. Finally, S.M. Holland stood on the bridge of the Triple Underpass. Holland had a direct view of the assassination scene including the Presidential limousine during the shooting, however, he was under no direct threat of being wounded by the shots.

Billy Lovelady is seen in Altgens6 photograph, in the Wiegman film, and possibly in the Darnell film. While standing on steps of the Depository doorway, Lovelady was continuously adjusting his posture and location to optimise his view of the motorcade. Lovelady learned about the meaning of the shots only after Gloria Calvary came to the steps approximately 20 seconds after the last shot and screamed about Kennedy being shot. His initial impression was that the sounds were firecrackers to celebrate President Kennedy. Miss Calvary was asked by the people on the steps if Kennedy was killed or only shot at, and Calvary told them that she has seen blood [9]. After the shooting, Lovelady walked together with his superior, William Shelley, in direction of the railroad tracks to explore the area where shots could have been fired from. Thus, Lovelady did not flee the assassination scene, he rather tried to get as close as possible to the area where he thought the shots have been fired from to explore that area further. Later, Lovelady gave a statement to the Dallas Police.

Charles Brehm stood on the grass field east to the road on which the motorcade was passing. Brehm heard three shots and already the second shot provided him with enough information about the purpose of the shooting because he saw blood on Kennedy’s body [10-11]. Brehm felt threatened after the third shot rang out because that shot apparently missed the limousine and flew next to his head. Therefore, he grabbed his little son and threw himself to the ground. Brehm did not leave the scene immediately. He watched people running up Grassy Knoll, and later he told about what he saw to the newsmen and the Police.

Bill Newman stood together with his wife Gayle and two little boys on the north side of Elm Street [12]. Initially, Newman considered the first two shots to be firecrackers. However, he realised the meaning of the shooting right after the third shot when he saw a portion of Kennedy’s right side of the head blown off and his body slumping across the back seat away from Newman. Newman reported that he had an impression of the shots originating from behind him. Newmans stayed at the scene and talked to reporters [13]. Bill Newman and his family were later brought to the Sheriff’s office to give an official statement [14]. Thus, Bill Newman understood the meaning of the shooting early on, and while fearing for his and his family’s lives, he stayed at the scene for minutes, and later assisted in the investigation by providing an affidavit in the sheriff’s office.

S.M. Holland was a railroad supervisor who happened to stand on the bridge of the Triple Underpass during the time of the shooting. Holland saw the motorcade arriving toward him. Holland heard four shots [15] and saw Kennedy’s wounds and therefore, Holland was able to assess the situation as an assassination immediately. Holland also reported seeing a puff of smoke from the area of the stockade fence and he decided to explore this area in the hope of catching the shooter [15-16]. Holland explored the area behind the stockade fence and saw footprints behind the wooden fence and mud on a bumper of a car parked at that location. Holland stayed in the area of the parking lot behind the wooden fence for about 15 minutes before returning to work [15].

Table 1 lists the presence of foreknowledge and selected features of behaviour in people who were at Dealey Plaza. The forms of behaviour include the realisation of the meaning of the shots, staying at the scene or moving toward the shooting spot to explore it further, and fleeing Dealey Plaza or searching a hideout. As shown in Table 1, the reactions of people who did not have any foreknowledge of a possible shooting (Bill Newman, Charles Brehm, S.M. Holland, and Billy Lovelady) were very similar. All these witnesses stayed at Dealey Plaza, orientated their attention toward the areas where shots likely came from, and later talked to the law enforcement officers or press. Lovelady realised the true nature of shots later than Brehm, Newman, or Holland because he did not have a direct view of President Kennedy during the shooting and needed to be told about the impact of shots by Gloria Calvary. Prayer Man, standing in the vicinity of Lovelady, Frazier, Shelley, and Stanton, received Calvary’s message at the same time as Lovelady. Lovelady was not the only Depository employee standing on steps who did not realise the meaning of the loud noises once he heard the shots. Ruth Dean stood in the eastern section of the doorway on the second bottom step, next to Maddie Reese. She told Larry Sneed [17] that she first thought that the sounds were firecrackers; she could not see the impact of the shots, however, she saw Jackie Kennedy climbing back after the final shot. Ruth Dean stood in the eastern section of the doorway. Those standing close to the western wall on top steps, such as Prayer Man or Buell Wesley Frazier, were not in a position to see President Kennedy when the final shot rang out. Indeed, Buell Wesley Frazier initially thought that the first sound he had heard was a motorcycle backfiring; he realised that the sounds were shots only after he had seen people running and screaming [18]. Buell Wesley Frazier confirmed in his testimony for the Warren Commission that he could not see President’s limousine from his location in the doorway when shots rang out. As Prayer Man was even further to the west compared to Frazier, he neither could see President’s limousine.

Table 1: Foreknowledge and behaviour of selected witnesses to the assassination of President J.F. Kennedy.

Oswald’s behaviour, including features of Prayer Man’s behaviour, closely matches the behaviour of Chauncey Holt or Tosh Plumlee. Both Holt and Plumlee realised the meaning of shots immediately, did not stay at the scene (Plumlee briefly explored the top of south knoll before leaving via the Post office parking lot) and their hasty departures equaled fleeing the scene. Holt not only left the Plaza but he also realised his possible framing and he hid in the boxcar. In contrast to Holt, Plumlee, and Prayer Man, Goode and Nash stayed at the scene and actively helped in the investigation. Thus, Oswald featured as Prayer Man behaved very differently compared to the Goode and Nash which makes the possibility of Lee Oswald being a part of an abort team unlikely.

Lee Harvey Oswald’s behaviour after the shooting, complemented with aspects of Prayer Man’s behaviour seen in the Darnell film, suggests the presence of foreknowledge of an incident involving shooting and a rapid realisation of the meaning of the shooting, if not earlier, then at the moment when Gloria Calvary reached the steps of the Depository building. Similar to Holt or Plumlee, Oswald left Dealey Plaza hastily because Oswald, just like Holt, felt threatened by the situation [1]. Similar to Holt, Prayer Man showed no intention to explore the scene visually or by moving toward the area of Grassy Knoll.

From the two possible types of foreknowledge, one siding a plot to cause a non-violent shooting incident (Holt) and the other aiming to abort a possible assassination attempt in a secret CIA-sanctioned mission (Plumlee and Sergio), Lee Oswald’s foreknowledge appears to be of the same type as Holt’s foreknowledge. Oswald, like Holt, did not explore the assassination scene but sought to leave Dealey Plaza. However, if Oswald were a part of an abort team and had a role similar to that of Plumlee, there would be no risk to him of being framed for killing the President because being a part of an abort team did not entail having his own rifle in the Depository building. Finally, sitting in Domino room on the first floor of the Depository building, or standing in the doorway would be a very ineffective way of trying to abort an assassination attempt.

The present analysis of the behaviour of people who had and those who did not have any foreknowledge of a shooting incident suggests that Lee Oswald was aware of a possibility of a non-violent shooting incident. Oswald’s role may have been to lend his pro-Castro and leftist profile to incite the public against Castro’s Cuba by taking initial blame for the shooting incident. After all, Oswald’s actions during summer 1963 were clearly directed toward painting him as a Castro sympathiser. Oswald, if he was the unknown man standing at the western wall of Depository doorway, could have realised the change of the plan and his role as a patsy when he heard the shots, similarly to Holt, or seconds later when Gloria Calvary told the people in the Depository doorway about the impact of the shots. The details of Lee Harvey Oswald’s involvement in an incident involving mock shooting may never be determined. It is possible that Oswald was blackmailed by rogue CIA agents to bringing his rifle to the building; the process of Oswald’s framing by rogue CIA agents has been explained in a recent TV documentary “Oswald and JFK Unsolved Cases” [19]. Since no harm would be caused to anyone during a mock shooting, so was Oswald perhaps told, and since Lee Oswald would be able to prove his whereabouts during the shooting, he could not have been charged with any serious crime. Oswald could always point to a trading purpose as the reason for bringing his rifle to the building. These assurances might have appeared to Oswald as sufficient to consent to participation in a non-violent incident involving a shooting. However, none of the assurances held the water at the moment when Lee Oswald had realised that an innocuous mock shooting exercise changed to a real assassination. After that, Lee Oswald was a marked man, and he started to run for his life.

References

[1] Stancak, A., What does Prayer Man’s body language tell us about his state of mind? thejfktruthmatters.wordpress.com, 30/11/2020.

[2] Dankbaar, W., Chauncey Holt: Self-portrait of a Scoundrel. Trine Day, Kindle Edition, LLC, 2013.

[3] Frame 313: The JFK Assassination Theories (2008). https://youtu.be/p-Z_Bm-93VY. Sergio’s words at the time mark: 1:09:01. Chauncey Holt’s interview at the time marks 1:07:07, 1:08:15, 1:08:33, 1:10:14.

[4] Tosh Plumlee. Spartacus Educational. https://spartacus-educational.com/JFKplumlee.htm. Retrieved on March 21, 2021.

[5] Peterson, S., Zachry, K.W. The Lone Star Speaks. Untold Texas Stories about JFK Assassination. Bancroft Press, Baltimore, MD, 2020, Chapter 21: The Voices of Lt. J. Goode and Robert “Tosh” Plumlee.

[6] Frame 313: The JFK Assassination Theories (2008). https://youtu.be/p-Z_Bm-93VY. Sergio’s words at the time mark: 1:09:01.

[7] Peterson, S., Zachry, K.W. The Lone Star Speaks. Untold Texas Stories about JFK Assassination. Bancroft Press, Baltimore, MD, 2020, Chapter 21: The Voices of Lt. J. Goode and Robert “Tosh” Plumlee.

[8] The presence of Robert Nash during the interrogation of Lee Harvey Oswald on November 23, 10:25AM, was confirmed by Cpt. Will Fritz in his testimony for the Warren Commission. http://jfkassassination.net/russ/testimony/fritz1.htm

[9] Billy Lovelady’s testimony for the Warren Commission, 07/04/1964. http://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/russ/testimony/lovelady.htm

[10] Charles Brehm’s FBI statement, 24/11/1963. https://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/russ/testimony/brehm.htm

[11] Sneed, L. No More Silence. An Oral History of the Assassination of President Kennedy. University of North Texas Press, Denton, TX, 1988. Chapter: Charles Brehm, pp. 60-68.

[12] An Interview with Assassination Witness Bill Newman. The Dealey Plaza Echo, March 1988. The interview was edited by Ian L. Griggs. http://jfk.hood.edu/Collection/Weisberg%20Subject%20Index%20Files/N%20Disk/Newman%20William%20&%20Gayle/Item%2001.pdf

[13] Sneed, L. No More Silence. An Oral History of the Assassination of President Kennedy. University of North Texas Press, Denton, TX, 1988. Chapter: Bill Newman, pp. 94-101.

[14] Voluntary statement by William Newman in Sheriff’s Office, dated November 22, 1963. Warren Commission Hearings, XIX, p. 490.

[15] S.M. Holland’s testimony for the Warren Commission, 08/04/1964. https://mcadams.posc.mu.edu/russ/testimony/holland.htm

[16] Filmed interview of S.M. Holland by Mark Lane, 23/03/1966.

[17] Sneed, L. No More Silence. An Oral History of the Assassination of President Kennedy. University of North Texas Press, Denton, TX, 1988. Chapter: Ruth Dean, pp. 70-72.

[18] Testimony of Buell Wesley Frazier for the Warren Commission, dated March 11, 1963. Warren Commission Hearings, vol. II, pp. 210-245.

[19] Oswald and JFK Unsolved Cases. Part 1. The Pawn. Part 2. The Chessmaster. NHK World-Japan, December 2020. Part 1: https://youtu.be/84LWU1uh-yU; Part 2: https://youtu.be/6DvfmbfejAA